Books by Özgür Orhangazi
Özgür Orhangazi, neoliberal dönemde Türkiye ekonomisinin geçirdiği dönüşümü yakından inceliyor; y... more Özgür Orhangazi, neoliberal dönemde Türkiye ekonomisinin geçirdiği dönüşümü yakından inceliyor; yapısal sorunlarına, kırılganlıklarına, kriz dinamiklerine ışık tutuyor.
Elbette sıfırdan başlamıyor. Arka planda dünya ekonomisinin Keynesçi düzenlemelerden neoliberalizme geçişi var. Bu büyük dönüşümün korumacı, planlamacı, müdahaleci Türkiye ekonomisine taşıdığı etkiler, şoklar söz konusudur. Kitap, dünyada ve Türkiye'de bu geçmişin aşamaları incelenerek başlıyor.
Orhangazi, neoliberal dönemin kritik bir aşamasına özel önem veriyor: Sermaye hareketlerinin serbestleştiği 1989... Sonraki yıllar, ağırlaşarak bugüne taşınan kırılganlıkların, bozulmaların öyküsüdür. Bu öykü, ekonominin dış kaynaklara giderek artan bağımlılaşması içinde seyrediyor. Çarpıcı sonuçları, uzantıları ayrıntılı olarak izleniyor; çözümleniyor: Dört kayıp yıl, krizler, dış açıklar ve borçlar, inşaat odaklı büyüme, erken sanayisizleşme, artan proleterleşme içinde ücret payının seyri...
Dünya ekonomisinin merkezinden kaynaklanan finansal çevrimlerin Türkiye'ye yansımasının 2013-2019 bilançosu, kitabın sonunda yer alıyor. AKP iktidarı, dış çalkantılara karşı savunma araçlarını yitirecek; adım adım ekonomiyi 2018'in döviz krizine, küçülen bir ekonomiye taşıyacak; politika seçenekleri arasında çaresiz kalacaktır.
Özgür Orhangazi'nin kitabı, bence, Türkiye ekonomisinin yakın geçmişini, neoliberal dönemin açmazlarını, sorunlarını kavramak isteyen herkes için çok önemli bir kaynak olacaktır.
Korkut Boratav
Financialization and the U.S. Economy
Papers by Özgür Orhangazi
Energy Policy, 2025
This study examines the potential economic impacts of Turkey's energy transition by focusing on t... more This study examines the potential economic impacts of Turkey's energy transition by focusing on the effects of solar and wind energy investments. With Turkey aiming for "net zero" emissions by 2053, this research evaluates the impacts on total emissions, economic growth, employment, and the trade deficit under various scenarios. Utilizing input-output analysis and the employment factor approach, we analyze the macroeconomic and emission outcomes of a 10-year clean energy investment project targeting the transformation of the energy sector. Our findings indicate that investing in solar and wind energy could reduce Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions by 28-77 percent of 2020 emission levels. These investments are projected to enhance economic growth, contributing an additional 0.6%-1.8% of 2020 GDP annually on average. The employment effects are also significant, with total potential job creation amounting to a total of 1.3%-3.4% of Turkey's labor force in 2020. Furthermore, the investments are expected to improve the trade balance by 6.9-14.6 billion dollars over 10 years. The results suggest that green energy investments can simultaneously achieve environmental goals and promote economic stability through job creation and improve trade balances.
METU Studies in Development
Bu makalenin ilk versiyonu Şubat 2023'te Ankara'da toplanan 17. Ulusal Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi'n... more Bu makalenin ilk versiyonu Şubat 2023'te Ankara'da toplanan 17. Ulusal Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi'nde sunulmuştur. Değerli yorum ve eleştirileri için başta Oktar Türel olmak üzere tüm katılımcılara teşekkür borçluyuz. Bu makalede sunulan değerlendirmelerin bir bölümü daha önce Yeldan (2023) ile Orhangazi (2022a; 2022b)'de geliştirilmiştir.
ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 2023
2021 sonbaharında Merkez Bankası’nın politika faizini indirmeye başlamasıyla birlikte döviz kurla... more 2021 sonbaharında Merkez Bankası’nın politika faizini indirmeye başlamasıyla birlikte döviz kurları yükselirken kısa bir süre sonra da enflasyon artışa geçti. Kısa sürede piyasa faizleri reel olarak negatif bölgeye çekildi. Aralık 2001’deki faiz indirimini takiben döviz kurlarındaki yükseliş hızlandı, piyasalardaki oynaklık kontrolden çıkmaya başladı. Kurlardaki yükselişi dizginlemek için devreye önce döviz kuru korumalı vadeli hesaplar, sonrasında da bir dizi bankacılık düzenlemesi sokuldu. Her ne kadar gerçek anlamda bir model çerçevesinde uygulanıyor olmasa da, bu politikalara “Türkiye modeli” ismi verildi. Bu çalışmada Eylül 2021’den itibaren uygulanan politikaların sebep ve sonuçlarını anlamak üzere bir tartışma yürütüyoruz. Bu amaçla öncelikle 2001’den itibaren Türkiye ekonomisinin makro dinamiklerinin bir dönemlendirmesini sunuyoruz. Bu dinamiklerin ana eksenini dış sermaye hareketleri ve bu süreçte biriken ve ihmal edilen kırılganlıkların oluşturduğunu vurguladıktan sonra, 2021’de uygulanmaya başlanan politika çerçevesine odaklanıyoruz. Bu politikaların ortaya çıkışını ve uygulanmasını tartışıp uygulanan politikaların makro ekonomik sonuçlarını, Orta Vadeli Program çerçevesinde hedefler ve gerçekleşmeler açısından inceledikten sonra bu politikalar neticesinde ortaya çıkan bölüşüm şokunu inceliyoruz.
Development and Change, 2023
While global monetary tightening by central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, has heightened ... more While global monetary tightening by central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the world's economy and an increased likelihood of debt crises across developing countries, Turkey has attracted attention for doing the opposite. Indeed, the country's economic policy makers have intensified monetary easing towards credit expansion at the risk of increased exchange rate instability. This article analyses the Turkish case and makes four contributions. First, it establishes a framework through which we can understand and interpret the policy choices of the government. Second, it shows the binding effects of the trilemma in the context of an economy fully integrated in the global economy and discusses how the government tried to tackle these effects through a series of ad hoc policy measures. Third, the article discloses the distributional consequences of such policy manoeuvres and argues that the burden of adjustment fell on the shoulders of wage labour, while various competing rentier interests benefited from these policies. Fourth, the authors analyse these policies from a broader perspective of whether they can be interpreted as a courageous attempt by a peripheral developing economy to claim some policy space, or whether these policy choices in essence only amount to a deepening of neoliberal peripheralization. A previous version of this article was presented at the Development and Change workshop on 'Debt Crisis in the Majority World', The Hague, 17-18 November 2022. The authors would like to acknowledge their indebtedness to Burcu Ünüvar, the workshop participants, the anonymous reviewers and the editors of the journal for their invaluable suggestions and critical comments.
Industrial and Corporate Change, 2022
Pharmaceutical firms are highly profitable due to high markups enabled by high drug prices. This ... more Pharmaceutical firms are highly profitable due to high markups enabled by high drug prices. This is justified by the argument that high profits provide incentives for innovation and help fund high research and development (R&D) costs. We investigate the link between past profitability and drug discovery for large publicly-listed pharmaceutical firms between 1980 and 2018. Our sample includes 118 firms with 2534 firm-year observations and in terms of sales corresponds to 55% of the global spending on drugs. By merging three data sets on firm financials, new patent applications, and new drug approvals, we show that pharmaceutical firms' markups and profitability are consistently higher than average nonfinancial firm profitability, with secularly increasing trends since 1980. Whereas R&D spending has also increased, the number of new drug approvals has not increased at the same pace and the productivity of R&D spending has been declining. In statistical analysis, we fail to identify any strong positive relationship between profitability and new drug discovery. Results are broadly in line with the earlier findings of research on the pharmaceutical industry and provide a contribution to the discussion on the link between profitability and innovation as well as on formulating policies for increasing drug innovation and ensuring the provision of essential drugs while keeping their costs low.
Development and Change, 2021
By the end of 2018 Turkey had entered a new economic crisis and a lengthy recession period. In co... more By the end of 2018 Turkey had entered a new economic crisis and a lengthy recession period. In contrast to the previous financial crises of 1994, 2001 and 2009, when the economy shrank abruptly with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018 economic crisis was characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising unemployment, spiralling currency depreciation and high inflation. The mainstream approach attributes this dismal performance to a lack of 'structural reforms' and/or exogenous policy factors.
Competition & Change, 2021
A recent series of academic studies, think-tank reports, and news articles shows widespread atten... more A recent series of academic studies, think-tank reports, and news articles shows widespread attention to rising industrial concentration and market power in the U.S. economy. In this paper, we focus on concentration in the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector to make three contributions to the literature. First, we use examples from the debate on industrial concentration to show that there are often-divergent predictions in the theoretical literature surrounding the expected consequences of concentration and monopolization for nonfinancial firms. Second, we use industry-level concentration data to describe recent trends in average concentration. We show that, while concentration increases across the majority of industries after the late 1990s, the retail and information-services sectors are particularly key for understanding recent trends in average industrial concentration. Third, we link our industry-level analysis with firm-level data to describe the relationship between industrial concentration and nonfinancial corporations' profitability, markups, and investment. Consistent with the ambiguities in the theoretical literature, we find that these relationships are not uniform: while some highly concentrated industries confirm standard expectations with high markups, high profitability, and low investment rates, other highly concentrated industries earn lower-than-average markups and profits, suggesting that-in some industries-increased concentration and intensified competition may go hand in hand.
IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2021
We assess the effects of a sharp minimum wage increase on wages, informality, and employment in T... more We assess the effects of a sharp minimum wage increase on wages, informality, and employment in Turkey, a large developing economy with one of the highest minimum wage-to-average wage ratios among OECD countries and widespread discrepancies between labor market outcomes of women and of men. We look at the quasi-experimental 2016 minimum wage increase and pay attention to identifying information coming from demographic groups. We find that the increase in the minimum wage had an economically substantial and statistically significant positive impact on wages. Despite the positive wage effects of the increase, we find no negative employment effects. However, we show that the minimum wage increase may have caused an increase in the share of informal employment among workers with less than tertiary education, especially for such workers working for small firms.
Panoeconomicus, 2020
We analyze the relationship between financing constraints and firms' R&D activity using a rich an... more We analyze the relationship between financing constraints and firms' R&D activity using a rich and comprehensive firm-level balance sheet and income statement data set of manufacturing firms in Turkey for the period 1996 to 2013. Using a firm-specific, time-varying financing constraints index, we find that financing constraints have a negative relationship with firms' R&D activity, after controlling for other determinants of R&D such as firm size, capital intensity and export market participation. It is a widely-held view that the R&D activity is difficult to finance and highly susceptible to financing constraints. While a significant number of empirical studies find a negative relationship between financing constraints and R&D activity, Bronwyn Hall and Josh Lerner (2010) provide a comprehensive summary of the literature and conclude that it remains an open question whether financing constraints matter for R&D. We contribute to this empirical literature by providing an extensive empirical analysis of the link between R&D activity and financing constraints in the context of a developing economy, Turkey, for the period of 1996-2013. While there are studies on the determinants of the R&D activity by the Turkish firms, our analysis is a first with its specific focus on financing constraints. Turkey is a fitting case to examine this link, as the R&D expenditures of the private sector as a percentage of GDP remain around 0.92 by 2012, quite below the ratio for OECD countries (2.47%) or for upper middle-income countries (1.45%) (World Bank 2016) 1. We analyze the relationship between financing constraints and firms' R&D activity using a comprehensive firm-level data set based on the financial statements of manufacturing firms. In our analysis, we construct a firm-specific, time-varying index of financing constraints, and look at the impact of financing constraints on both the decision to start R&D activity and the level of R&D activity. Having controlled for firm size, capital intensity and export market 1 World Bank. 2016. World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development indicators (accessed January 16, 2016).
İktisat ve Toplum, 2020
Negatif istihdam etkisi gözlemlemenin her açıdan daha kolay olduğu bir yılda yapılan güçlü
asgari... more Negatif istihdam etkisi gözlemlemenin her açıdan daha kolay olduğu bir yılda yapılan güçlü
asgari ücret artışının, yaratması öngörülen negatif istihdam etkisini yaratmamış olması,
işverenlerin ücretlerde meydana gelen önemli artışları ödünleyebildiğini göstermektedir.
This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the real sector and the financial
sector in ... more This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the real sector and the financial
sector in the era of neoliberalism. To this end, we focus on the implications of financial
developments for the main macroeconomic variables including, consumption, investment
and income distribution. We also explore the impacts of the recent crisis on Turkish
economy and the policies taken in response to the crisis.
The overall findings of this report provide considerable supports to four interrelated
arguments. First, many well established properties of financialisation in advanced
countries are not found in the Turkish case. Second, as opposed to domestically driven
financialisation tendencies, financial flows, a part of global financialisation, have dominated
important trends in the Turkish economy. Third, under the significant influence of financial
flows, in general, the Turkish economy has shown a debt-led consumption boom type
growth. Fourth, although the role of the export shock in explaining the impact of the recent
crisis on the Turkish economy is very distinctive, the role of financial flows in the recent and
especially previous crises are very important as well.
PERI WP 504, 2020
Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2... more Turkey entered a new phase of recession-cum-real economy crisis starting in the last quarter of 2018. In contrast to the previous crisis episodes of 1994, 2001 or 2009, when the economy had abruptly shrunk with a spectacular collapse of asset values and a severe contraction of output, the 2018- crisis is characterized by a prolonged recession with persistent low (negative) rates of growth, dwindling investment performance, debt repayment problems, secularly rising open unemployment, a spiraling currency depreciation and high inflation. Popular explanations from the mainstream tradition attribute this dismal performance to a lack of “structural reforms” and/or exogenous factors. Per contra, our analysis shows that the underlying sources of the crisis are to be found not in the conjunctural cycles of reform fatigue, but rather in the post-2001 neoliberal speculative-led growth model with excessive reliance on hot money flows and foreign debt accumulation. We argue that following the post-2001 orthodox reforms, a foreign-capital-inflow-dependent, debt-led, and construction-centered economic growth model dominated the economy and caused a long buildup of imbalances and increased fragilities.
PERI Working Paper 492, 2019
A recent series of academic studies, think-tank reports, and news articles shows widespread atten... more A recent series of academic studies, think-tank reports, and news articles shows widespread attention to
rising industrial concentration and market power in the U.S. economy. In this paper, we focus on concentration in
the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector to make three contributions to this literature. First, we trace the theoretical
origins of the debate on industrial concentration, and show that there is a certain degree of ambiguity surrounding
the expected consequences of concentration and monopolization for nonfinancial firms. Second, we use industrylevel
concentration data to describe recent trends in average concentration. We show that, while concentration
increases across the majority of U.S. industries after the late 1990s, the retail and information-services sectors are
particularly key for understanding recent trends in average industrial concentration. Third, we link our industry-level
analysis with firm-level data to describe the relationship between industrial concentration and nonfinancial
corporations’ profitability, markups, and investment. Consistent with the ambiguities in the theoretical literature, we
find that these relationships are not uniform: while some highly-concentrated industries confirm standard
expectations with high markups, high profitability, and low investment rates, other highly-concentrated industries
earn lower-than-average markups and profits, suggesting that – in some industries – increased concentration and
intensified competition may go hand in hand.
Mülkiye Dergisi, 2019
Türkiye ekonomisi 2018 ortalarında bir döviz krizi ile karşı karşıya kalmış, ekonomi yavaşlamaya,... more Türkiye ekonomisi 2018 ortalarında bir döviz krizi ile karşı karşıya kalmış, ekonomi yavaşlamaya, enflasyon hızla artmaya ve borç ödemelerinde yaşanan sorunlar yoğunlaşmaya başlamıştır. Bu makalede, yaşanan bu gelişmelerin, 2000'li yıllarda Türkiye ekonomisine hâkim olan dış sermaye girişlerine bağımlı, borç artışına dayanan, inşaat odaklı büyüme modelinin yapısal bir krizi olduğu öne sürülecek, Türkiye ekonomisinin dış sermaye girişlerine bağımlı yapısı tartışıldıktan sonra, borç artışı ve inşaat odaklı büyüme tercihleri incelenecektir. 2000'li yıllar boyunca dış sermaye girişlerinde yaşanan artışla birlikte ekonominin ani duruş veya çıkışlara karşı kırılganlığını daha da artmıştır. Özel sektörün toplam dış borcundaki artış, hem bankacılık sektörünü hem de finansal olmayan işletmeleri döviz kurlarındaki oynamalara karşı kırılgan hale getirirken yurtiçi borçluluk oranlarındaki artış da ekonomik büyümenin faiz oranları ve kredi genişlemesindeki değişimlere oldukça duyarlı olmasına yol açmıştır. Türk lirasının reel olarak uzun süre değerli seyretmesi, üretimde ithal ara malı kullanımını arttırarak 2000'li yıllarda büyümenin yüksek cari açıklarla birlikte gerçekleşmesine neden olmuştur. Dolayısıyla dış sermaye girişlerine bağımlı, borç artışına dayanan, inşaat odaklı büyüme modeli iç ve dış şartlar olumlu olduğunda ekonomik büyüme yaratırken zaman içerisinde ekonomideki kırılganlıkları arttırmış ve ekonomik istikrarsızlığa zemin hazırlamıştır. Bu şartlar altında ortaya çıkan döviz ve borç krizi sonrası ekonominin seyrinin ana belirleyicisi küresel likidite şartlarındaki gelişmeler olacaktır.
Cambridge Journal of Economics
Starting around the early 2000s, and especially after the 2008 crisis, the rate of capital accumu... more Starting around the early 2000s, and especially after the 2008 crisis, the rate of capital accumulation for US nonfinancial corporations has slowed down despite relatively high profitability; indicating a weakening of the link between profitability and investment. While the literature mostly focuses on financialisation and globalisation as the reasons behind this slowdown, I suggest adding another layer to these explanations and argue that, in conjunction with financialisation and globalisation, we need to pay attention to the increased use of intangible assets by nonfinancial corporations in the last two decades. Intangibles such as brand names, trademarks, patents and copyrights play a role in the widening of the profit–investment gap as the use of these assets enables firms to increase market power and profitability without necessarily generating a corresponding increase in fixed capital investment. After discussing the ways nonfinancial corporations use intangible assets, I look at large corporations in the USA and find the following: (i) The ratio of intangible assets to the capital stock increased in general. This increase is highest for firms in high-technology, healthcare, nondurables and telecommunications. (ii) Industries with higher intangible asset ratios have lower investment to profit ratios. (iii) Industries with higher intangible asset ratios have higher markups and profitability. (iv) The composition of the nonfinancial corporate sector has changed and the weight of high-technology and healthcare firms has increased; but this increase did not correspond to an equal increase in their investment share. The decline in the investment share of durables, nondurables and machinery is matched by an increase in the investment share of location-specific industries with low intangible asset use, most notably firms in energy extraction. In general, these firms have steadier markups and higher investment to profit ratios. (v) Yet, intangible-intensive industries’ profitability has increased faster than their share of investment or total assets. All in all, these findings are in line with the suggestion that the increased use of intangible assets enables firms to have high profitability without a corresponding increase in investment.
Uploads
Books by Özgür Orhangazi
Elbette sıfırdan başlamıyor. Arka planda dünya ekonomisinin Keynesçi düzenlemelerden neoliberalizme geçişi var. Bu büyük dönüşümün korumacı, planlamacı, müdahaleci Türkiye ekonomisine taşıdığı etkiler, şoklar söz konusudur. Kitap, dünyada ve Türkiye'de bu geçmişin aşamaları incelenerek başlıyor.
Orhangazi, neoliberal dönemin kritik bir aşamasına özel önem veriyor: Sermaye hareketlerinin serbestleştiği 1989... Sonraki yıllar, ağırlaşarak bugüne taşınan kırılganlıkların, bozulmaların öyküsüdür. Bu öykü, ekonominin dış kaynaklara giderek artan bağımlılaşması içinde seyrediyor. Çarpıcı sonuçları, uzantıları ayrıntılı olarak izleniyor; çözümleniyor: Dört kayıp yıl, krizler, dış açıklar ve borçlar, inşaat odaklı büyüme, erken sanayisizleşme, artan proleterleşme içinde ücret payının seyri...
Dünya ekonomisinin merkezinden kaynaklanan finansal çevrimlerin Türkiye'ye yansımasının 2013-2019 bilançosu, kitabın sonunda yer alıyor. AKP iktidarı, dış çalkantılara karşı savunma araçlarını yitirecek; adım adım ekonomiyi 2018'in döviz krizine, küçülen bir ekonomiye taşıyacak; politika seçenekleri arasında çaresiz kalacaktır.
Özgür Orhangazi'nin kitabı, bence, Türkiye ekonomisinin yakın geçmişini, neoliberal dönemin açmazlarını, sorunlarını kavramak isteyen herkes için çok önemli bir kaynak olacaktır.
Korkut Boratav
Papers by Özgür Orhangazi
asgari ücret artışının, yaratması öngörülen negatif istihdam etkisini yaratmamış olması,
işverenlerin ücretlerde meydana gelen önemli artışları ödünleyebildiğini göstermektedir.
sector in the era of neoliberalism. To this end, we focus on the implications of financial
developments for the main macroeconomic variables including, consumption, investment
and income distribution. We also explore the impacts of the recent crisis on Turkish
economy and the policies taken in response to the crisis.
The overall findings of this report provide considerable supports to four interrelated
arguments. First, many well established properties of financialisation in advanced
countries are not found in the Turkish case. Second, as opposed to domestically driven
financialisation tendencies, financial flows, a part of global financialisation, have dominated
important trends in the Turkish economy. Third, under the significant influence of financial
flows, in general, the Turkish economy has shown a debt-led consumption boom type
growth. Fourth, although the role of the export shock in explaining the impact of the recent
crisis on the Turkish economy is very distinctive, the role of financial flows in the recent and
especially previous crises are very important as well.
rising industrial concentration and market power in the U.S. economy. In this paper, we focus on concentration in
the U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector to make three contributions to this literature. First, we trace the theoretical
origins of the debate on industrial concentration, and show that there is a certain degree of ambiguity surrounding
the expected consequences of concentration and monopolization for nonfinancial firms. Second, we use industrylevel
concentration data to describe recent trends in average concentration. We show that, while concentration
increases across the majority of U.S. industries after the late 1990s, the retail and information-services sectors are
particularly key for understanding recent trends in average industrial concentration. Third, we link our industry-level
analysis with firm-level data to describe the relationship between industrial concentration and nonfinancial
corporations’ profitability, markups, and investment. Consistent with the ambiguities in the theoretical literature, we
find that these relationships are not uniform: while some highly-concentrated industries confirm standard
expectations with high markups, high profitability, and low investment rates, other highly-concentrated industries
earn lower-than-average markups and profits, suggesting that – in some industries – increased concentration and
intensified competition may go hand in hand.